The Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and External Debt-to-GDP Ratio on Economic Growth in Egypt: A Quarterly Analysis (2012–2022) Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Regression (LASSO)

نوع المستند : المقالة الأصلية

المؤلف

ESLSCA University

المستخلص

This dissertation proposal investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables—specifically inflation rate, real interest rate, exchange rate, and external debt to GDP ratio—on Egypt's economic growth rate from Q1 2012 to Q4 2022. The study employs Lasso regression, an advanced statistical technique, to address multicollinearity issues often overlooked in previous research. By analyzing quarterly data from the Central Bank of Egypt, the research reveals significant positive effects of inflation and real interest rates on economic growth, contrary to the negative impacts of the exchange rate and external debt to GDP ratio.
 
This study contributes original insights to the existing literature on Egypt's economic dynamics, providing valuable guidance for policymakers to formulate strategies that foster sustainable economic growth.
 

الكلمات الرئيسية

المجلة العلمية للإقتصاد و التجارة
المجلد 55، العدد 1
ابحاث فى تخصصات ادارة الاعمال - المحاسبة - الاقتصاد - الاحصاء باللعة العربیة واللغة الانجلیزیة
إبريل 2025
الصفحة 67-104

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